# Fixed vector-entry experiments — 19 September 2026

Two hypotheses were declared before running this comparison. UBTC is the primary market; UETH and HYPE are replication markets. Use 1h candles / 4h context and the original entry, stop, target and risk rules.

- **Trend volume:** original vector breakout and midpoint retest versus the same pattern allowing any breakout volume.
- **Sweep volume:** original bearish-climax sweep and reclaim versus the same pattern allowing any sweep volume. Both retain the same vector-zone target rule.

Controls can include vectors. Each arm runs separately; its pending patterns, positions and daily loss locks can affect later opportunities. Differences do not isolate a causal market-maker action.

## Frozen development results

24 July 2026 10:00 UTC to 19 September 2026 22:00 UTC, end exclusive. This period overlaps earlier research and is not untouched validation. Each arm starts with 1,000 USDC, risks 0.25% per trade and caps allocation at 25%. Base costs are 0.08% fee and 0.05% slippage per side. The stress column doubles both costs on precisely the same trades and quantities.

| Market | Experiment | Arm | Trades | Net return | Average net R | Double-cost return |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| UBTC | trend-volume | Vector | 6 | +0.10% | +0.05R | -0.17% |
| UBTC | trend-volume | Any volume | 11 | +0.29% | +0.10R | -0.27% |
| UBTC | sweep-volume | Vector | 1 | +0.44% | +1.78R | +0.39% |
| UBTC | sweep-volume | Any volume | 2 | +0.73% | +1.46R | +0.62% |
| UETH | trend-volume | Vector | 8 | -0.45% | -0.25R | -0.79% |
| UETH | trend-volume | Any volume | 13 | +0.83% | +0.24R | +0.22% |
| UETH | sweep-volume | Vector | 0 | +0.00% | — | +0.00% |
| UETH | sweep-volume | Any volume | 1 | +0.01% | +0.04R | -0.03% |
| HYPE | trend-volume | Vector | 7 | -0.09% | -0.05R | -0.33% |
| HYPE | trend-volume | Any volume | 10 | -0.15% | -0.06R | -0.53% |
| HYPE | sweep-volume | Vector | 0 | +0.00% | — | +0.00% |
| HYPE | sweep-volume | Any volume | 0 | +0.00% | — | +0.00% |

Neither hypothesis meets the declared minimum of 30 trades per arm. UBTC trend strategies are negative under double costs. Sweep trades are sparse. UETH's any-volume trend result is an exploratory finding, not grounds to change the primary market after seeing the data. No strategy is recommended for live trading.

## Fixed future window

**20 September 2026 00:00 UTC through 19 November 2026 00:00 UTC, end exclusive (60 days).** Both hypotheses remain unchanged for observation. The current desk replays completed candles when opened; it does not run in the background. Use extended history and export snapshots and observations. Do not treat a provisional sample-end exit as an actual paper or broker fill.

Review only after the complete window and sufficient data. UBTC treatment must have positive base and double-cost net return, exceed its control's average net R at both cost levels, and have at least 30 trades in each arm. At least one replication market must also pass these conditions. A pass earns manual review only; the gate is not a significance test. Correlated markets and overlapping opportunities are not independent replications. If the sample remains sparse, record that outcome rather than extending or changing the test to force a pass.

## Reproduction and preservation

Run `npm test` and `npm run research` from the saved project. The evaluator verifies frozen public-data and calculation-code hashes. Its JSON includes every modeled historical trade. The input cutoff is permanent, so an originally incomplete candle cannot become a completed candle just because the script is run later.

Protocol: `dist/protocol.json`. Data provenance and checksums: `research/data/manifest.json`. Machine-readable results: `outputs/fixed-experiments.json`. Any implementation fix or parameter change requires a new protocol and future start; preserve the previous version in Git.